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Feb 12, 2026
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LONG
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Indonesia is cutting its nickel production quota for the year from ~42 million tons down to 12 million tons. Indonesia accounts for two-thirds of global production. This is a massive, state-directed supply shock designed to squeeze the market. A ~70% reduction in approved quota from the dominant global supplier mathematically forces prices higher to clear demand. LONG Nickel futures or miners with exposure outside of Indonesia (or those with secured quotas). Indonesia reverses policy mid-year or demand for EVs/batteries collapses further. |
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